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Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, the badshah of Dalal Street needs no Introduction and was seen on dalal street buying his Mentor Radhakrishna Damani’s Favorite stock TV18 Broadcast Limited. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala now owns 3.2% of the company whereas Damani owns 2.44%.

Tv18 Broadcast Enjoys Strong Parentage of Mukesh Ambani Owned Reliance Industry. The Following blog will explain you why exactly are these 3 legends backing this company.

 

About the Business TV18 Broadcast is India’s most diverse and leading Media and Entertainment conglomerates with interest in television, internet, films and entertainment.

 

Dont Forget to Read the Valuation Paragraph of TV18 for amazing ClarityTv18

TV18 Owns very popular Channels like CNBC, Colors, MTV, Sonic, Etc.

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The Company pays Royalty for Using CNBC brand of about 30 Crores a Year whereas it has a joint venture for Colors and other MTV with Viacom18. Tv18 entered the Regional Market by buying out ETV for 2053 Crores.

Financials – 

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The company has been recovering in the last few years as investment in Colors starts to yield returns. Company has focused on very high Quality Content in colors in its Popular Shows Big Boss, Nagin Jalak Diklaja etc which has made colors the number 1 GEC channel in Q3 FY2017.

 

Investment Rational –

Subscription Revenues Set to Surge: The 2 Primary Revenue Generator are Advertisement & Subscription. Subscription Revenues are given by DTH players, however with the onset of digitalization especially in Tier III & IV cities , subscription revenues are all set to improve.

 

Advertising Fees Early Signs of Picking up: : TV18 was under tremendous pressure as advertising revenue had plummeted due to the economic slowdown and 12 minute ad cap regulation. Going ahead, advertising revenue is expected to pick up as economy improves. 

 

Grabbing Regional Channel Space : Do you know Sun TV has an operating margin of 70%? Sun Tv has been maintaining this margin level in the toughest of All times. Tv18 entered the growing regional space by acquiring 100% stake in ETV news, 50% stake in ETV GEC via Viacom JV and 24% stake in ETV Telugu spending a whopping 2052 Cr. However, the acquisition gives the TV18 a foothold into fast growing regional space. ETV acquisition has also led to better bargaining power with Multi system operators , DTH players and advertising companies and has enhanced its presence in Media & Entertainment Space. TV 18 has a significant presence in hindi speaking belt via ETV. It also has strong presence in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan & Gujarat. Digitization and improved content to increase viewership share of regional channels from 27% in FY2012 to 43% in FY2020E

Sector Tailwinds – The size of India’s television industry was estimated at Rs 542 billion in 2015, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% to touch  Rs 1,098 billion in 2020.

 

Strengthening & Transition of Colors Brand: GEC has undergone consolidation with STAR, ZEE and Colors exchanging top 3 places in the last few years. In Q3FY17 Colors continued its strong performance and was the #1 channel among its comparable peers.Colors has gained higher market share in urban area as per BARC ratings while still increasing its presence in rural areas.

Valuation – 

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Lets understand the Listed Space to Understand the Valuation of TV18.

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Zee Entertainment is clearly the Market Leader of the Pack with 1000 crores of profit and 47,600 Crores of Market Cap. Sun Tv a regional Player has PAT margins of 35.5% clearly having competitive advantage in South regional entertainment Market. TV18 has lagged behind in PAT due to a lot of investments in Colors to make it number 1 channel in GEC.

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Typically Industry Opearting Margins are between 25-70%. TV18 has operating margin of 9.8% only but it has presence in both Regional play in ETV and GEC like colors. The margins of Tv18 have been poor because of continuous investments in new Channels. A diversified Market leader like TV18 can easily Fetch a PE multiple of  20-25x. The question that is what will be the earnings then if margins expands to 25-30%.

We conservatively expect that Operating Margins can expand to 25% in 3 years, Sales growth of 12% and PE multiple of 25. Using this approach, we believe that the company will be valued at at-least 16,000 Crores against about 6300 Today. Please note Zee Entertainment trades at 50+ PE and Colors is now better than Zee in viewership rating.

Conclusion

Tv18 is available at High margin of Safety, the bet is on the Business model rather than on the Financial. We are confident that the company will turnaround in coming years, but even if it doesn’t the odds of someone losing money is low. Media is a very high fixed cost business. The gestation period is extremely high. It will be extremely difficult for newer channels to be launched & start competing against the big guys for gaining viewership and market share. TV18 has demonstrated a successful business model over the years and across the segments; the company’s channels are among the top leaders in their particular segments. ETV channels via its subsidiary are near break-even and will start performing in coming years. Colors has become profitable but we believe margins can improve substantially in coming years. With Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and RadhaKrishna Damani Betting big in this stock, this looks to be a good pick.

Please note – From FY2017  Viacom18, Indiacast and IBN Lokmat have now been accounted following “Equity method”, as proportionate consolidation method is not allowed as per New Ind AS. We have made this report based on 2016 and prior annual report as quarterly data wasn’t sufficient.

 

Disclosure – Amit Jeswani and His family has no Positions in this Stock. Stallion Asset is a SEBI Registered Equity Advisory company. The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly and believed to be true. Investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

By Now you might know Dolly Khanna, She is famously called the lady with a midas touch. Her latest stock pick is Trident Limited (1.03% Stake), a leading manufacturer and exporter of Home Textiles & Paper products. She is very bullish on Textile, as she already owns Nitin Spinners and Nandan Denims. Even in our last blog the ‘Magic multibagger’, using Joel Greenblatt’s Magic Formula, 2 out of the 10 stocks were textiles (KG Denims and Pasupati Acrylon).

Let Understand Trident in 5 mins (Everything you need to know about it)

About the Company – Trident Group and a leading manufacturer and exporter of Home Textiles & Paper products. Co has its manufacturing facilities set up in Barnala in Punjab &  Budni in the state of Madhya Pradesh in India. Company’s domestic sales contribute 39% whereas 61% is export sales. Textile business contributes 78% to the revenue whereas the paper business contributes 22%.

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The company has been in Investing mode for last 2 years and has lately and has invested 1,667 crores in home textile division via a combination of debt and Equity.The company has guided for a revenue of 1200 crores during optimal use of capacity in the new plant which commenced commercial production in febuary 2016. The company expect 40-50% capacity utilization in FY 2017, a contribution about 500-600Crs to topline and 80% utilization in FY18.

Financials at a Glance –

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The company’s business model over the last few years have moved from a commodity type Yarn producer to value added home textile market. The company has been focused on high margin, high value product not only in the textile division but also in the paper division where they have guided to increase share of high margin copier business to 60-70% from 50% of current sales.

Understanding Companies Business Model – The main 2 segments of Business are Textile Business (78%) and Paper Business (22%)

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Trident’s paper business has been doing better compared to the textile business. The company has been in transition mode from a commodity player to Value added paper.

The company boost of a great client portfolio in its textile division like Target, Wal-Mart, Macy’s, IKEA, Ralph Lauren in International market and Domestic Giants like ITC Hotels, Page Industries etc.

Case for Operating Leverage – The Company has had 18% margins on average when it was in commodity business of yarn. With new capacity coming in and utilization improving till FY 2018, there is a strong case for margin improvement to 20-23% by 2018.

Case for Financial Leverage –  70% of long term debt falls under the purview of lower interest rates since its under the TUFS scheme(Interest Subsidy given by government) . Trident has repaid outstanding term loans of Rs. 366 crore in H1 of FY17, which included prepayment of Rs. 151 crore of high cost debt .The co has targeted to keep net debt to equity ratio of 1.25x by FY18E Vs 1.4x in H1FY17. The decline in the current interest rates of the co will also be beneficial. It must be noted that cost of capital is low for trident due to TUFs scheme and paying off long term debt will decrease return ratios.

Comparison with Peers and Valuation- We value the Paper business at 800 Crores assuming a PE multiple of 10 times. The two main competitors of Trident in home textile division are welspun (23% CAGR in last 5 years) and Indocount (25% CAGR in last 5 years). Both have grown fairly well in the last few years compared to Trident which has grown at 15% CAGR in last 5 years. Trident has been a late entrant in bed linen business but it has fresh capacity to increase revenues from 3700 crores to about 5000 in next 2 years. The Operating Margin of Welspun in FY 2016 stood at 26.38%, whereas it stood at 20% for Indo Count. Since trident is fully backward intergrated (Inhouse yarn business) we believe that it can increase margins by 300 bps to 23% from current 20% in next 2 years.

Trident will reap benefits of increasing scale of operations, highly integrated manufacturing process in both home textiles and paper, and continued access to low-cost raw material for paper division will ensure healthy and sustained operating profitability  in the medium term. We believe trident will do an EPS of 8-9 in FY 2018. We value Trident at 10-11x FY 2018 and give it a fair value of 95 by march 2018. We also believe that the downside risk in this stock is limited to 50 and any dip remains a buying opportunity.

Risk – The company has been frequently diluting equity, which has resulted in low growth in EPS. We don’t expect any further dilution of Equity as debt capital is very cheap for the company and debt/equity is well under control.

Conclusion – Ramping of utilization both in the towels and bed-linen facilities in Budhni (Madhya Pradesh) and sound export prospects for home furnishing will be key trigger for the stock prices in the medium to long term. We believe that trident is a stable business and since it is fully backward integrated in the next few years it can have strong margin expansion.

Disclosure – Stallion Asset is a SEBI Registered Company and this is not a Recommendation. Use this for Educational Purpose only. Amit Jeswani and His Family have no positions in Trident.

 

 

 

Today i am going to share Top 10 Stocks with you according to a strategy  which is endorsed by Warren Buffet, written in “the little book that beats the Market” by Joel Greenblatt. Joel Greenblatt runs a hedge fund named Gotham Capital and has compounded capital at 40% for 20 years from 1985 to 2006.

In the Book, Joel Greenblatt gives out his Magic Formula. The Result’s of the Magic Formula in the US Markets have been Amazing and has delivered 30.8% between 1988 and 2004 with delivering negative returns only once.magic-formula-results

SO WHAT EXACTLY IS THE MAGIC FORMULA?

The Magic Formula is Easy – Buy Good Companies for Cheap Valuation.

We Ranked all companies listed in Indian Stock market According to 2 main Factor’s of the Magic Formula

1)Good Companies that have High Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)

2)Cheap Companies that trade at a Low Enterprise Value to EBITDA Ratio (EV/EBITDA).

** Please note we have Excluded Holding Companies, Utilities and Financials.

Here is the list of top 10 stocks according to the Magic Formula.

magic-stocksNot all of these will be Multibagger, but these are good companies at below reasonable valuation. I haven’t Back tested this strategy in the Indian Stock Market, but in the US market this strategy has worked really well.

This is definitely not a Stock Recommendation but this strategy has worked really well. We will Review this strategy at the end of 2017. Incase your looking for the full Excel of This feel Free to Mail us at info@stallionasset.com and we will provide you for free.

Sign Up for a Free Trial With Us and Get a Multibagger Stock Idea.

Feel Free to Contact us on 02240033944

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