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QUERY DESK

This is a limited access to the Query Desk, where we share some of the Queries we have answered. These are not recommendations, but a casual chat between a client and his advisor.

Client

27, Nov 18

Query

Subject: Technical View of the market

Hi!

Can you share your opinion about Nifty, DJIA and Emerging Market index in terms of Elliot Wave Principle and if we can make any correlations from them?

Do you think Nifty might be on the verge of a H&S pattern (10900-1000 peak of right shoulder) ?

Thanks!

 

Admin Reply

12, Dec 18

Hi Sir,

Well MSCI EEM should have bounced back from 36-38 levels and that support level held on and 29th October 2018 MSCI EEM made a Bottom of 37.57.. As expected the Dow Jones have fallen more than the EEM, for example between 3th October & today the Dow Jones has fallen to 10% Whereas the MSCI EEM has fallen 5%.. Emerging Markets are a lot further in the bear market compared to Developed Markets. 

 

I believe Midcaps should outperform large caps now, today was an Interesting day, the markets had so so so so much bad news but we close well in positive territory after opening at days low, market bought into fear.. If for 2-3 more days market can sustain to close above 10500, it should be a very good for midcaps.. 

 

I am not 100% Confident that the US Markets have bottomed out as the leaders of the Bull Market have topped out only 3 months back though the Meeting of FED would decide what would happen next in the short term.. 

 

Client

31, Oct 18

Query

Subject: PSU banks time to take a call

Hi Amit,

is it time to take a contra call on PSU banks. Trading .5-.7 p/ b, this cld give decent returs. I was checking indian bank, vijaya which hv reported net profit all along and union bank has turned positive since last two qrts. Yr take please.

tks and rgds

Admin Reply

17, Nov 18

Hi Sir,

I do respect the screen a lot and the screen loves corporate banks like ICICI bank, Axis Bank.. I am not betting on PSU's in this product.. We have a clear strategy of 3-5x Profits in 5 years, no compromise on that with good promoter quality.. 

Client

25, Oct 18

Query

Subject: Sunflag opinion

Hi Amit 

Can you tell us ur opinion about sun flag in steel sector.

There are lot of positive points about this stock like good equity by debt ratio, tHey have only been in loss once in 13 years, they have a JV with diado steel and very good cash flow.

 

Admin Reply

17, Nov 18

Hi Sir,

I am positive on Steel also, though the Markets hate it.. We ofcourse dont have any positions in Either Momentum or Multibagger in Steel since last 4 months but i believe Market is now drunk on quality companies... 

 

There is nothing wrong in being in quality companies but the valuations are insane for some of them.. If you have a 100% High Quality portfolio of 20 stocks, i believe 10-12 of them will underperform the market in next 5 years if they dont grow at more than 15%.. 

 

Market is paying 50-60 PE for 10% growth is out of my understanding unless the ROE is more than 100% or sustainable growth is more than 25%.. You can make a great deal of Money in the stock market either by being smart or just by being a little less stupid..

 

Coming to Sunflag, I dont track it so closely but Steel should do really well i believe for next 2 years (ofcourse its a commodity and things change fast here) and the risk reward is very favourable here.. 

 

There are 3 kinds of Business, money can be made in all three of them.. 

1) A Good Business Model in a Good Time (Get your Valuation Right here)

2) A Good Business Model in a Bad time (Being Patient is Important)

3) A Bad Business Model in a Good time (Remember to Exit Well)

Client

05, Sep 18

Query

Subject: NBFC warnings from Uday kotak

Hello Amit

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/lenders-sitting-in-the-lap-of-disaster/articleshow/65679230.cms

Uday Kotak is warning and has been right in the past. Fact of the matter is demon and GST did created upheavel in working of msme sector. We cant take him lightly. We are hugely invested in finance sector as such these warnings are of paramount importance to us. your views ?

 

Admin Reply

27, Sep 18

Hi Sir,

I spoke to Rashesh at length and even deepak (head of credit at edelweiss) and even from my understanding with Kapil from DHFL is that there are no problems on the Asset side, Loan to Value is at 45% for the Industry for LAP whereas it was 72% in 2008 in India, Gold Finance LTV in 2011 was 81%, so dont see credit risk in Retail yet! 

Client

21, Aug 18

Query

Subject: Mahindra holidays for long term

Hi ,

I have visited a couple of Mahindra holiday resort.

I was shocked to see that their resorts were fully occupied during weekday off season time.

Can you give your views on the financials and the valuations of the company .

Admin Reply

05, Sep 18

Hi Sir,

One of the top management person of Mahindra Holidays is our client (Recently left his Job), he told me that the product is just not sellable and great companies dont sell products, customers buy it. You open a D-Mart in any place and people would come, You launch a Godrej Properties project in any place and people will come but mahindra holidays is a difficult sell. 

 

He told me Mahindra Takes 6 lakhs upfront for 1 week of holiday Plus 14000 a year annual fees. The Problem is that Indian consumers are smart, they calculate the cost of capital with 12% interest rate i.e. 6 Lakh * 12%= 72,000 + 14000 as annual fees = 86000/Year. 

 

You can get most 5 stars in India for 7 days at less than 86000/year.. In a consumer product business, you need to have your consumers like you. 

Client

10, Aug 18

Query

Subject: Your video on edelweiss is very good

Dear Amit,

I am working for a one of the wealth management company (Your video of edelweiss got circulated in the entire company), i completed reading the entire question desk today and i am just amazed how much you know about so many stocks/Sector at this age. Hope you can keep enlightening the community with the same passion. I don't have a question today but delighted to be part of this community. 

 

 

Admin Reply

28, Aug 18

Hi Sir,

Thanks Much! You can share more about the wealth management Industry in the next query if your comfortable. I personally Believe wealth Management Industry is at a huge Tipping point, every business happens with these 3 things "Convince, Make the Sale and then Deliver better than expectations".

 

I believe Wealth Management as a industry now convinced people about Investing in Financials Assets, The Sale is happening and will grow, the delivery of Returns is the most important thing now. In Market More Money comes with More Returns at a Higher Valuation, the game is always the same. Good Luck !

Client

17, Jul 18

Query

Subject: Trying to understand Global Trends

Hi!

You've mentioned a couple of times that FAANG Stocks are the leaders of this bull market. There are a few data point that I would like to mention here and perhaps you could help all of us understand it better. -  Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix & Apple are responsible for more than 80% of the upside in S&P in 2018.  According to Bank of America - excluding just the five FAANG stocks, the S&P 500 return in H1 would have been -0.7%. 

16th July - Netflix reported earnings and they seem to have missed their earnings mark and cracked about 10% in pre-market session. You've mentioned Bull Markets are fueled by earnings growth. Do you think this might be the start of the end of the FAANG bull market? Also, in one of your answers you mentioned that US still is the most influential market - do you think that contagion effects would be felt in India as well severely. 

Also, I read in some cases that the Bond Market is able to give early signals about recessions. There are a couple of articles indicating that Bond Yields are inverting which signaling recessions. What are your views on the bond market and the inverting bond yields - do you think it might correlate to the bull market leaders missing their earning expectations (Netflix).

You have continously mentioned that India is on it's way to become a $5 trillion Economy by 2025(28).  You've mentioned that you're super bullish long term and a little bearish in the medium term (unclear due to political uncertainity in India). Do you think we could see a very significant crash in the next 3 years owing to global issues?

Apologies for such a long query but I hope I can get some perspective and learn from your ideas!

Thank you very much

 

 

Admin Reply

31, Jul 18

Hi Sir,

Thats a Complex Question to be honest because Netflix and Now even Facebook fell 20% 2-3 days back and even twitter on friday fell 20%. I am Tracking Facebook very closely and facebook after the Fall is exactly at the same level as it was in may2018. There was just too much extra euphoria which was built in. The Results were super for facebook but on concall the CFO said "expenses would rise going forward to due privacy and growth may slow a little". 

 

Facebook made a Panic Low and a double bottom at 150, i think markets would wait for next quarter before bidding facebook higher. The Range is now between 150-195 for it and a break in either direction would decide the trend. 

 

Indian Markets need a Leader to move up as the breakout has just happened. My bet is that with 46% revenue growth this quarter, the Leader can be Reliance Industries. There would be new Sector Trends that would be created, i believe it would be a B2C company probably but not very clear signs yet. 

 

World Recession i dont know or understand so much but you need to look at the FANGS, they will tell you where the S&P500 is heading. Google is making new highs, Amazon is Still making new Highs, apple also at new highs whereas Facebook is the same level as it was in May2018, Netflix was 200 at start of January 2018, even after the correction it is at 355, a 80% gain, not bad at all! 344 is a important support for Netflix, lets see!

Client

19, Jun 18

Query

Subject: Emerging Asia sees biggest foreign investor exodus since 2008

Dear Amit and team,

What is your opinion on this article.. Is it time to apply more adverse steps to reduce risks? Do you think until the next general elections, we should park the money oin a safer instrument like debt??

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/emerging-asia-sees-biggest-foreign-investor-exodus-since-2008/articleshow/64641715.cms

regards

Admin Reply

29, Jun 18

Hi Sir,

The Emerging Market Index (MSCI EEM) Gave a Breakdown 3 days back below 45$, i think  intermediate top is done there. Hangsang couldnt sustain above 32000 (2008 highs) and now breaking down. The MSCI EEM has to consolidate a lot before breaking out because i see serious drawdowns of 15-16% for global funds there. I think emerging markets are over-rated and i cant find one emerging market which is doing great things. 

 

See there will be new Trends starting, there will be growth, we will do well dont worry too much about emerging market trends. Every change creates an opportunity to make 3-10x gains, we are getting smarter and won't miss opporunities. Trends are more clear in a bear market, because the valuations are understandable and its very clear. 

 

Dont worry too much, the more market falls, the more times we will go higher. As on Today our Portfolio is down 8.5% YTD, i will get it back from them and a lot lot more believe me. There is nothing different in this fall, this will happen to us a lot of times in the 10-20 years but we need to focus on our strategy.

 

A lot of retail guys will be out of market and will promise never to invest again, Its always the same. In a journey toward wealth creation, we have entered a rough spot i.e. i call it a Jungle on the way. 

 

i remember what Ray Dalio the Largest Hedge Fund Manager says "In order to have a great life you have to cross a dangerous jungle. You can stay safe where you are and have an ordinary life, or you can risk crossing the jungle to have a terrific life. How would you approach that choice? Take a moment to think about it because it is the sort of choice that, in one form or another, we all have to make." 

Client

29, Apr 18

Query

Subject: How to Learn Valuation?

Dear Amit,

Thanks a ton for the Query desk as its a great learning tool and i am your lifetime member, but Whats is the Best Way to value a Stock?

 

Admin Reply

16, May 18

Hi Sir,

There are Different ways people Calculate value of a business, there is nothing perfect in the market and thats exactly what makes the market. With this Query i am going to give out my secret formula of valuing companies (giving it before as well). Believe me this is there is no books (at least what i have read)

The Most popular ways to calculate Value of Shares are

  1. Academic - Discounted Cash Flow
  2. Sell Side Analyst - Relative Valuation
  3. Technical Analyst - Chart Patterns and Momentum
  4. Accountants - Book Value
  5. My Secret Formula - (ROCE + Growth)/2 = PE Ratio

1) Academic - Discounted Cash Flow -

Meaning - Its the present value for all future cash flows. The discounting rate depends upon the riskiness of business. 
Problem - Needs prediction of Cash flows for next 10 years atleast which is impossible for 99.99% of Business’. I personally believe ‘Prediction is for Fools’ but i take this as a good starting point but don’t rely too much on it.

2) Sell Side Analyst - Relative Valuation

Meaning - How do you value a house? Majority of Houses are sold at the price depending on the price of the house in your Neighborhood. Relative valuation means looking at various ratio’s of Similar companies like PE, P/B, ROE, etc and coming to a valuation

Problem - No Two companies are the same. Both Page Industry (Jockey) and VIP Clothing are in the same industry of selling Undergarments. in last 7 years, Page industry has given its investors 42 Times returns whereas VIP Clothing has moved up only 3.2x.

3) Technical Analysis (Used by Majority of Traders, Academic hate them) - Meaning - He who believes that the market knows more than anyone else. Value of a share is the price at which it is being traded. The Price is because of Demand and Supply and nothing else.

Problem - You can’t use technical Analysis for very large money as you yourself are making the patterns.

4) Accountants - Book Value - Meaning - Value of the company =Assets minus Liabilities (Book value of Equity)

Problem - This is rarely true, as accounting doesn't happen at fair value rather than book value. The companies fair value can be and will be very different from its book value.

5) Stallion Asset’s Secret Formula - I am the Founder of Stallion Asset, we are a SEBI Registered (INH0000002582) Equity Advisory company and have delivered 306% returns in last 4 years to our clients. Please note, we use this formula extensively in our research, but do your due diligence before using this formula.

We are in the business of making money for our clients and creating alpha for them. The idea is bet on stocks that are mispriced, have High Return on Capital Employed and are expected to show above average Growth.

PE Ratio = Price/EPS

ROCE= Operating Profit/ Capital Employed

Growth = EPS Growth

The Stallion Secret Formula for Finding Fair PE Ratio is

(Sustainable 3 year growth + Expected ROCE)/2 = Fair PE Ratio

Example - If you buy a ABC company which is expected to grow at 20% for next 3 years and has a ROCE of 25% , then (20+25) Divide by 2 = 22.5 (Fair PE Ratio)

If you buy this stock at lets say 10 PE, i can virtually guarantee you that within 3 years if your thesis of growth is right, the stock will trade 22.5 PE so your gains are Valuation Expansion as well as Growth. So example you bought Stock ABC at 100, with an EPS of 10. In the next 3 years, if the company grows at 20%, then company will have an EPS Of 17.2 and with an estimated PE ratio of 22.5, the fair value of the stock would be 387 Per share.

Congratulations you have made you first 287% returns in 3 years.

Client

02, Apr 18

Query

Subject: What worked for stallion asset

Hi Amit

you are a young businessman, just like me (I am 36 years young) and a lot of people in bangalore are now speaking about you and luckily for you its all good things. In an older query you told there are 400+ advisors, what made people believe you and not others?

Admin Reply

12, Apr 18

Hi Sir,

The Difference is this ->

1) We never worked for money, we worked for creating a difference in life of Stallion Family

 

2) My competition sells Stock tips, we sell a investment strategy that has worked for decades successfully and consistently beaten the market. Most of the stallion family understands our strategy.

 

3) My Team has a lot of Energy and i believe you will see the same team in next 5 years (a lot more names but the current ones are core), every one here is running a marathon not a sprint. We think long term in our decision making process and give a lot of emphasis for greed for knowledge.

 

4) I only like business' where they create value for the customer (I keep saying in every 20th query that the customers love xyz company) and obviously i will do whatever it takes to create value for our customers, so they keep loving us. (Competative advantage).

 

We consider ourselfes very very small today and our goal of achieving financial freedom for majority of the stallion family is still far away.

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